Monday, June 30, 2008

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Please think carefully before you look at the solution.


Tree showing the probability of every possible outcome if the player initially picks Door 1

Our intuition will tell us that there is no difference whether we choose to switch or not to switch. And this shows us that sometimes our intuition can be wrong, so people, always, always leave room for doubt

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